The European Union Perspective

It seems to me that this blog and other commentators have looked at Brexit entirely from a United Kingdom perspective. Take a quick look at this from the perspective of the remaining members of the European Union - the EU27.

Let us look at Southern Ireland. It has a great deal of traffic plying from Dublin to Liverpool and Dublin to Holyhead. This week there were two items of interest with regard to Dublin port. 

The first is that the Irish State has started dredging Dublin Bay (https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37526-dredging-in-dublin-port-begins-with-material-dumped-in-dublin-bay) and the second is the introduction of the world's "largest Ro-Ro Ferry" (https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe) which will:

make a maiden call this week to Dublin Port from Zeebrugge and is to be followed with an introduction on the Rotterdam route

The obvious reason for doing this is so that Ireland's goods and animal exports can avoid the island of Great Britain and ply from Dublin Port to Belgium (Zeebrugge) and Holland (Rotterdam). If the French berthing points are deep enough expect to see direct routes from Dublin to France. 

This will directly affect the ports of Holyhead and Liverpool. It would seem unlikely that unemployment would not be caused in Holyhead by such action. It is surprising that the Welsh Assembly and its leader Carwyn Jones has not picked this up.

With regard to Border Inspection Posts or Points (BIP), there are three in Southern Ireland: Dublin Port, Dublin Airport and Shannon Airport. For the purposes of this blog, in France there is Brest, Dunkirk and Le Havre. In Belgium there is Ostende and Zeebrugge. In Holland there is Rotterdam. (https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/vet-border-control/bip-contacts_en) 

Note that Calais is not a BIP and neither is Dover.

Dunkirk has recently been extended and can cope with 5000 consignments a year. Nowhere near enough for the volume of traffic that will hit it in the event of a No Deal World Trade Organisation (WTO) only Brexit. Last time I travelled with Eurotunnel there was a plaque on the side of the train that said:

"Via the Channel Tunnel. Each year, Eurotunnel carries 1,600,000 trucks to and from the UK with a total trade of £91 billion"

Don't forget that the European Union is not leaving the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union.

Why should Ireland, France, Belgium or Holland expand their Border Inspection Posts to ameliorate the fact the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union? Why should any of these four countries employ more border force personnel or BIP personnel or Veterinary Surgeons because we are leaving? If you were a member of the Government of any of these states wouldn't you say:

"Look, you are leaving and need more BIP capacity, you are going to have to pay for it and their staff, salary and pensions."

I know I would be tempted to do so if I were them. 

Returning to Ireland, there is the vexed question of the Irish Border.  Whilst the Island of Ireland is not united the Irish Border CANNOT be ignored. It is 300 miles long. It undulates and crosses farms leaving some fields in the North and some in the South. The border posts have gone. I saw a tweet where it was stated that one post was now a boxing gym.

The point being that the Irish border is the only land border between the United Kingdom and the European Union. If Mrs May is true to her word, Antrim will not be in the European Single Market whilst Dublin will be. To ensure the integrity of the single market, the border will have to be enforced.

In terms of scale, 91,000 Irish companies trade with the UK. After Brexit, their customs declarations will create an eight-fold increase in paperwork volume. There will be special permits, extra investment, more paperwork and potential delays. Ports and airports will need extra infrastructure, such as temporary storage facilities for customs clearance. The Revenue itself will need a big increase in staffing levels. (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86630) 

The European Union has also got its own agenda to consider. Under the Treaty of Rome it is:

"DETERMINED to establish the foundations of an ever closer union among the European peoples"

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Treaty_establishing_the_European_Economic_Community and that is what it is intending to do. There has been in the press discussion of a new treaty amongst the Euro States and amongst the wider (European) Union having a single Finance Minister and diluting still further national states veto and increasing the use of Qualified Majority Voting (QMV). There is even discussion of a European Union Army. Why wouldn't they? 

The European Union is determined to retain the integrity of the European Single Market of which it is a part with Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein and it will not allow the United Kingdom to become an ad hoc member whilst not following the rules of that market.

There are those who say that the United Kingdom complies with all the rules now so it will continue to do that after it leaves. That's the point though. The United Kingdom is leaving.

The United Kingdom leaves and the European Regulatory Regime ceases when we leave because we are not a member so AFTER we leave the European Union can only ensure we obey the Regulatory Regime (the rules) of the market if we do the administration i.e. the paperwork.

No Deal means a WTO regime as some politicians have said. If the United Kingdom has Memorandums of Understanding (MOU's) or Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRA's) or Free Trade Agreements (FTA's) that is NOT a WTO only regime. That's a deal or deals.

After the United Kingdom leaves under a No Deal WTO only regime it will have to allow imports of goods which it would not have allowed if it were in the European Single Market and so the European Union will want to ensure that its market is not undermined by such goods entering the market.

I do not think this is unreasonable. I am a leave voter remember. I just think that's logical. There will be barriers to Trade.

If we leave under a No Deal WTO only regime then access to databases and interfaces will cease. United Kingdom driving licences will no longer be recognised. This will impact on all who drive on the continent on holiday or on business. 

All this because the Utterly Useless Conservative Government led by 'President' Theresa May insists that the United Kingdom must leave the European Single Market. As Faisal Islam tweeted:

... the need for this call rather goes to illustrate that being in the Single Market is not the same as being in the EU

The United Kingdom should apply for EFTA membership. Many of the above issues would be ameliorated if we did. We would stay in the European Single Market for a start. Iceland wants us to join. Norway wants us to join, the President of the EFTA court wants us to join, Michel Barnier has publicly suggested it. The European Union has even said that we can invoke Article 112 of the EEA Treaty if we do. Let's do it.

No Deal is NOT a credible option. 

The Queen

Elizabeth Alexandra Mary, Her Majesty The Queen.

I am not a fan of memorial services to be honest. I think that you should tell people how wonderful they are whilst they are here to hear it. A friend of mine recently left the area and at a farewell lunch I told him what a good friend he had been.

Since it is highly unlikely that I will ever have lunch with The Queen it seems that the only way of lauding her is through the impersonal (but very personal) blog.

The Queen has recently said that she will watch the Remembrance Sunday parade from the Foreign Office building and that the Prince of Wales will lay her wreath as well as his own.

It is sad that this decision has been made but The Queen is 91 and an age when most would be well retired or no longer with us so it is understandable.

"I declare before you all that my whole life, whether it be long or short, shall be devoted to your service and to our great imperial family to which we all belong."

It is quite an achievement for anyone to have lived up to a pledge made whilst young for 70 years but the fact is that The Queen has done so and without complaint. It would be hell in my view to live under the spotlight all the time and whilst it would be fun to have people run around after you for a week I think it would soon pale.

The Queen is the only monarch anyone under 65 has known and she has fulfilled her role in an exemplary way in my view. Certainly I will not live to see any other monarch reign for 65 years.

It is difficult to explain exactly what it is that she represents. All I can say is that she represents to me at least Country and feelings of patriotism and sometimes emotion. None of us is irreplaceable but I think I would echo what Kenneth Baker said about another female leader

We shall not see her like again

 Perhaps this best describes my feelings 

Thy choicest gifts in store 

On her be pleased to pour 

long may she reign. 

May she defend our laws

and ever give us cause

to sing with heart and voice

God Save The Queen

No Deal is NOT a credible option (A political reboot)

No Deal is NOT a credible option

It seems quite clear to me that this Utterly Useless Conservative Government is, despite all warnings and recommendations, going to go for 'No Deal' - a Hard Brexit. In the view of many this would be a disaster. 

Richard North of EUReferendum has posted many articles of which this is an example: (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86636) Pete North (http://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/brexit-stupidity-squared.html), 

Oliver Norgrove (http://www.norgroveblog.co.uk/2017/09/the-wto-threat-is-bee-sting.html) and many on Twitter are queuing up with warnings. I have posted a few myself: 

(http://leavetheeuropeanunion.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/a-letter-to-my-member-of-parliament.html) and yet none of this seems to be getting through. 

The principal reason for this is that the Westminster 'Village', the SW1A bubble if you like only speak and listen to each other. It seem difficult if not impossible for them to break the mould. I include in this group the BBC and its commentators such as Laura Kuenssberg and Andrew Neil. When they speak to the public, we seem to be used as filler between self reverential pieces to camera.

We need to break this and reboot our politics. A good place to start would be The Harrogate Agenda (http://harrogateagenda.org.uk)

Our six demands... 

1. Recognition of our sovereignty: 

The peoples of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland comprise the ultimate authority of their nations and are the source of all political power. That fact shall be recognised by the Crown and the Governments of our nations, and our Parliaments and Assemblies 

2. Real local democracy: 

The foundation of our democracy shall be the counties (or other local units as may be defined), which shall become constitutional bodies exercising under the control of their peoples all powers of legislation, taxation and administration not specifically granted by the people to the national government; 

3. Separation of powers: 

The executive shall be separated from the legislature. To that effect, prime ministers shall be elected by popular vote; they shall appoint their own ministers, with the approval of parliament, to assist in the exercise of such powers as may be granted to them by the sovereign people of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland; no prime ministers or their ministers shall be members of parliament or any legislative assembly; 

4. The people’s consent: 

No law, treaty or government decision shall take effect without the consent of the majority of the people, by positive vote if so demanded, and that none shall continue to have effect when that consent is withdrawn by the majority of the people; 

5. No taxation or spending without consent 

No tax, charge or levy shall be imposed, nor any public spending authorised, nor any sum borrowed by any national or local government except with the express approval the majority of the people, renewed annually on presentation of a budget which shall first have been approved by their respective legislatures; 

6. A constitutional convention: 

Parliament, once members of the executive are excluded, must host a constitutional convention to draw up a definitive codified constitution for the peoples of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It shall recognise their sovereign status and their inherent, inalienable rights and which shall be subject to their approval. 

 Let us look at Point 3:

3. Separation of powers: 

The executive shall be separated from the legislature. To that effect, prime ministers shall be elected by popular vote; they shall appoint their own ministers, with the approval of parliament, to assist in the exercise of such powers as may be granted to them by the sovereign people of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland; no prime ministers or their ministers shall be members of parliament or any legislative assembly;

Anyone could stand to be Prime Minister. They would have to campaign for votes locally and then nationally to be elected. They would not necessarily come from any political party. You could thus have an election between Nigel Farage, Nicola Sturgeon, Theresa May and Kier Starmer. 

The winner would be Prime Minister but NOT a member of Parliament. That Prime Minister would be able to choose ministers from all walks of life (service chiefs, surgeons, nurses, teachers, heads of companies etc.) to serve in their cabinets. Such ministers would have to be vetted by and approved by Parliament either by a select committee or by the whole House.

Those ministers would not be MP's but they (and the Prime Minister) would answer questions on the floor of the House of Commons. These appearances before the elected House would be mandatory. The legislature would thus have a free hand in holding them properly to account without having to be answerable to a party system or the whips.

I have written before about local Government and abolishing the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) (

http://leavetheeuropeanunion.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/a-personal-vision-for-britain.html) and it seems to me that point 2 in very important in this regard:

Real local democracy: 

The foundation of our democracy shall be the counties (or other local units as may be defined), which shall become constitutional bodies exercising under the control of their peoples all powers of legislation, taxation and administration not specifically granted by the people to the national government

The House of Commons should not be discussing the local bus service in Newcastle Upon Tyne or the local walk-in centre in Corby. This should be the responsibility of the County Council or Local Council. I am in favour of abolishing all National Grants to local authorities. 

Return the central tax to the taxpayer and make the County Council raise their own local tax and be responsible for spending it and being accountable to the people for their actions.

If Scotland and Wales wanted more independence from England and a majority of their peoples wanted it they would be allowed to have it except for Defence, Security (MI5, MI6, GCHQ) and Foreign and Commonwealth Office and any taxation powers essential to keep these services running. Everything else would be devolved.

Turning to money there is Point 5:

No taxation or spending without consent: 

No tax, charge or levy shall be imposed, nor any public spending authorised, nor any sum borrowed by any national or local government except with the express approval the majority of the people, renewed annually on presentation of a budget which shall first have been approved by their respective legislatures;

It seems to me that if you can confirm your electoral registration or vote for your favourite celebrity on "Strictly Come Dancing" via telephone then it is entirely possible to vote for (or against!) the budget via telephone.

The point of this post is that the political class seems not to be listening or, if it is listening is not hearing the message which is this:

The Conservative Party can if it wishes for purely selfish party ends - to keep the party united, to placate its think tanks and to abase itself before its donors go for a hard Brexit which will mean in the short term: 

No flights outside UK airspace (because no flight plan can be logged because access to EU databases and interfaces will cease on exit), Dover which is not even a Border Inspection Point (Post) or BIP will become a car park, registration of medicines and chemicals will be compromised, live animal exports will probably cease (the nearest BIP in France is in Dunkirk which can manage 5000 consignments a year), Horse Racing and Formula 1 will be endangered and there may be food shortages. 

If they do this however it will lead to an horrendous economic downturn and political wipeout for the Conservative party (the only bright spot in the whole landscape). They will not be forgiven in a generation.

The British people have allowed their (our) political class a huge amount of slack and we must never allow them to have that much or anything like that much ever again. 

Let the people reclaim THEIR power from the politicians.

No Deal is NOT a credible option

A Letter to my Member of Parliament

I have become increasingly concerned about Brexit and the Prime Minister's statements about Brexit.

I telephoned your office today and spoke to one of your parliamentary assistants and thank him for his time.

Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer said in Parliament the other day that all flights between the UK and the EU could stop on 29th March 2019 if there were 'No Deal' (see http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/864962/Philip-Hammond-Brexit-flights-European-Union-UK-airlines)

Today, Michel Barnier, the chief negotiator for the European Union and the other 27 states has said today that "I am not able in the current circumstances to propose that we should start discussions on our future relationship". (see https://ec.europa.eu/avservices/focus/index.cfm?sitelang=en&focusid=2687) 

We are being told that if the UK leaves the EU under no deal we can trade happily under WTO terms but in actual fact I have seen references to Mutual Recognition Agreements and Free Trade Agreements which are NOT WTO terms but different from WTO terms.

The United Kingdom voted correctly in my view to leave the European Union but we expected the Government to negotiate the best deal for the country which in my view they are not doing. Lord David Owen said on the radio yesterday that he thought it was incorrect of the Conservative Party to treat Brexit as solely a Conservative Party undertaking. He said he thought all parties should be involved and I agree with that.

It is the United Kingdom's decision to leave 'The Club' and if we leave without a deal we will lose access to European Union databases and interfaces to which we have so far enjoyed access.

1. No airline company will be able to leave UK airspace as they will have no overflying rights and cannot log a flight plan. There will be no flights coming up to Easter 2019. Just think what the electorate will make of that.
2. Dover is not a registered Border Inspection Point (Port - BIP). https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/bips_contact_unitedkingdom.pdf
3. The nearest Border Inspection Point in France is in Dunkirk NOT Calais. Dunkirk BIP was recently enlarged and can cope with 5000 trucks per annum. "Each year, Eurotunnel carries 1,600,000 trucks to and from the UK with a total trade of £91 billion".  Lorries to France will effectively be stopped and there will be a log jam.
4. France will not be eager to recruit more staff to ensure Dunkirk BIP is properly staffed and can cope with the traffic (why should they) unless, I suspect, the United Kingdom was willing to underwrite those costs.
5. Animal Products, Chemicals and other goods will be dramatically impacted by Brexit. Horse Racing and Formula 1 will be adversely affected. The British Airline Pilots Association (BALPA) and the European Fresh Produce Association (Freshfel) have started to sound warnings and I expect there to be more.
6. In a no deal scenario, the implications for the Irish border, the only land border between the United Kingdom and the European Union will be horrendous.

The Prime Minister has said that for a 2 year implementation period after Brexit the United Kingdom will effectively mirror the European Union:

"During this strictly time-limited period, we will have left the EU and its institutions, but we are proposing that for this period access to one another’s markets should continue on current terms and Britain also should continue to take part in existing security measures."

This in effect means that we will be under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice until 2021

As this is the case, the United Kingdom will not have left the European Union on 29th March 2019.

The president of the EFTA court, and ministers of Iceland and Norway have all suggested that the United Kingdom should join EFTA and thus stay in the single market. The European Union has even said that it would let the United Kingdom invoke Article 112 of the EEA treaty which would allow the United Kingdom to MANAGE immigration once we were an EFTA state.

I know you are on the 'payroll vote' but I think you should warn ministers of the economic catastrophe that a 'No Deal' entails. In 2017, your majority was only 1915 votes. How many constituents are employed by Luton and Heathrow airports or trade with the European Union. Can your majority survive a No Deal conclusion?

It is not an optimal solution but the safest solution is to join EFTA, stay in the European Single Market and work as an independent state intergovernmentally to develop EFTA and the EEA treaty in to something better than it is and work towards the final goal in UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe).

I am sorry for the length of this email but I am seriously worried.

Yours sincerely

Notes:

Much of the above is taken from the postings of EUReferendum.com (www.eureferendum.com) or The Leave Alliance (http://leavehq.com/default.aspx) or from Flexcit (http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/Flexcit.pdf)

Not covered above is that if we left the Customs Union but stayed in the single market via EFTA/EEA, the United Kingdom will be outside the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and subject to the EFTA Court.
(http://leavetheeuropeanunion.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/european-free-trade-association-efta.html)

The Irish border issue could be much better managed if we rejoined EFTA.