An observation about elections. General Elections in the United Kingdom take place under 'First Past The Post'. In the General Election of 2015, the Conservative Party polled 11,334,576 votes, 36.9% of those who voted but only 24.39% of the Electorate. Labour polled 9,347,304 votes with 20% of the electorate. The Conservative party gained 331 seats (the winning post was 325 seats) against Labour's 232. These voting totals are all seats including those the relevant parties did not win.
In Oldham on Friday, the turnout was 40.26% and Labour's share was 62%. This means that Labour won with 24.9% of the constituency vote. Talk of Jeremy Corbyn being 'toxic' on the doorstep, as I read in some papers in the lead up to the contest was, in my view, done firstly to undermine Mr Corbyn' leadership and secondly to scare the Labour voters of Oldham to turn out to vote.
The point is that overcoming a 'Labour' area or a 'Conservative' area ('Tribal' voting) is incredibly difficult. It is apparent that the immigration issue is not a vote changer and that Mr Farage who, I am told, is a very good public speaker seems not to be persuasive enough.
In the forthcoming European Referendum, the 'Leave' side have to overcome the argument that 'we're in it so we might as well remain it it' view and especially the 'deal' that Mr Cameron will try to sell. Mr Cameron's prestige and salesmanship must be our chief target which we must neuter if the 'Leave' side has any chance at the ballot box at all.
Therefore what is needed is an exit plan which persuades the voter that leaving the European Union is not a risk and that when we leave, the United Kingdom will still have access to the single and world markets. FLEXCIT, written chiefly by Richard North, is the plan. It illustrates how we can leave the European Union (which we must) and take our place again as an Independent Sovereign State taking part in the rapidly evolving Global Governance. Please visit and look at.http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcitlite.pdf
We need to be at the 'top table' in World Governance not have a 28th of a vote. We will find ourselves in a minority in the 28 more and more if we don't leave. An individual elector will have no influence whatever. Technocrats in Brussels will govern and be impervious to all representations.
The United Kingdom has nothing to fear from leaving the European Union. Quite the contrary.
Vote to Leave the European Union
If you are serious about wanting to leave, as I am sure you are, then we need to start campaigning now, straight after the New Year. We could have the referendum as soon as next June. So sign up to Vote Leave and get some leaflets. I attended a meeting in Southampton on Friday and took a couple of boxes away. I know its only a drop in the ocean, but if enough of us get going it could make a difference.
ReplyDeleteRichard North and the Boiling Frog do not think that the referendum will be in 2016 and Richard counsels against campaigning too early. I am in the midst of reading "FlexCit" (The Market Solution) and want to become as knowledgeable as possible before 2017. I really believe that we must be ready with positive alternatives to FUD and yes, my vote to leave in the referendum in 2017(?) is assured. The EU is a political construct and I want no part of it. Sorry for the delay in responding.
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